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An algorithm finds no ‘Trump effect’ on the US economy, at least not yet

AEIdeas, 19 July 2018, by James Pethokoukis.

So imagine an alternate reality where Hillary Clinton campaigned a bit more vigorously in supposedly safe Big Ten blue states and eked out a narrow Electoral College victory. So no President Donald Trump. And also no tax cuts, no deregulation, no trade war. How would the US economy — which Trump describes as “stronger than ever before!” —  be performing right now? Or to put it another way: Is there an economic Trump Effect?

Well, not so much, according to “Stable genius: Estimating the ‘Trump effect’ on the US economy” by researchers Benjamin Born, Gernot Müller, Moritz Schularick, and Petr Sedlácek. Their conclusion: “The impact of President Trump on the macroeconomic performance of the US economy has been negligible so far. We measure neither an acceleration of growth nor increased job creation in the US economy relative to an appropriate benchmark.” “[…]”


Read the full article here.