The Washington Post, 23 July 2018, by Matt O’Brien. One thing we can say for sure is there was a 2016 vote that significantly altered its country’s economic fortunes. No, I’m not talking about President Trump’s shock election, but rather Britain’s equally surprising decision to leave the European Union. Although, as...
AEIdeas, 19 July 2018, by James Pethokoukis. So imagine an alternate reality where Hillary Clinton campaigned a bit more vigorously in supposedly safe Big Ten blue states and eked out a narrow Electoral College victory. So no President Donald Trump. And also no tax cuts, no deregulation, no trade war. How would...
VOX – CEPR Policy Portal, 18 July 2018, by Benjamin Born, Gernot Müller, Moritz Schularick, Petr Sedláček Growth and employment in the US have been robust over the past 18 months, and President Trump frequently takes personal credit for these trends. This column explores how the US economy would have evolved without...
VOX – CEPR Policy Portal, 25 June 2018, by Òscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick, Alan Taylor, Felix Ward Asset markets in advanced economies have become more integrated than ever before in the history of modern finance. This is especially true for global equities starting in the 1990s. This column argues that this increase...
VOX – CEPR Policy Portal, 02 January 2o18, by Òscar Jordà, Katharina Knoll, Dmitry Kuvshinov, Moritz Schularick, Alan Taylor The rate of return on capital plays a pivotal role in shaping current macroeconomic debates. This column presents findings from a new dataset covering returns of major asset classes in the advanced...
VOX – CEPR Policy Portal, 28 November 2017, by Benjamin Born, Gernot Müller, Moritz Schularick, and Petr Sedláček It is hard to calculate the current cost of Brexit, because there is no obvious counterfactual. This column calculates the cost by letting a matching algorithm determine which combination of comparison economies best resembles...
The Economist, June 14, 2018 ON JUNE 13th the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, the seventh such increase since it began shouldering rates away from zero in December 2015. Markets shrugged—a rather different reaction from the one that followed a policy...
