Trump hasn’t made the U.S. economy better, but Brexit has made the U.K. economy worse

The Washington Post, 23 July 2018, by  Matt O’Brien. One thing we can say for sure is there was a 2016 vote that significantly altered its country’s economic fortunes. No, I’m not talking about President Trump’s shock election, but rather Britain’s equally surprising decision to leave the European Union. Although, as...

Continue reading

Global financial cycles and risk premiums

VOX – CEPR Policy Portal, 25 June 2018, by Òscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick, Alan Taylor, Felix Ward Asset markets in advanced economies have become more integrated than ever before in the history of modern finance. This is especially true for global equities starting in the 1990s. This column argues that this increase...

Continue reading

The rate of return on everything

VOX – CEPR Policy Portal, 02 January 2o18, by Òscar Jordà, Katharina Knoll, Dmitry Kuvshinov, Moritz Schularick, Alan Taylor The rate of return on capital plays a pivotal role in shaping current macroeconomic debates. This column presents findings from a new dataset covering returns of major asset classes in the advanced...

Continue reading

£300 million a week: The output cost of the Brexit vote

VOX – CEPR Policy Portal, 28 November 2017, by Benjamin Born, Gernot Müller, Moritz Schularick, and Petr Sedláček It is hard to calculate the current cost of Brexit, because there is no obvious counterfactual. This column calculates the cost by letting a matching algorithm determine which combination of comparison economies best resembles...

Continue reading