Macrohistory Seminar – Silvia Miranda Aggripino (Bank of England)

Unsurprising Shocks: Measuring Responses to Monetary Announcements using High-Frequency Data This paper proposes a new method to construct high-frequency futures-based proxies for the identification of monetary policy shocks in structural VARs. I discuss how the common use of narrow time frames tightly surrounding policy announcements to measure monetary surprises is...

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Macrohistory Seminar – Chris Meissner (University of California, Davis)

Fiscal and Financial Crises with Michael Bordo. In this paper we examine the interconnections between financial and fiscal crises based on history, theory, and empirics. Section 2 presents a brief historical overview of financial crises. Section 3 surveys theoretical perspectives on financial crises. Banking crises traditionally were analyzed using three...

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Macrohistory Seminar – Natacha Postel-Vinay (University of Warwick)

What Caused Chicago Bank Failures in the Great Depression? A Look at the 1920s This paper reassesses the causes of Chicago bank failures during the Great Depression by tracking the evolution of their balance sheets in the 1920s. I find that all Chicago banks suffered tremendous deposit withdrawals; however banks...

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Macrohistory Seminar – Kirill Shaknov (European University Institute)

The allocation of talent: finance versus entrepreneurship The rapid growth of the US financial sector has driven policy debate on whether it is socially desirable. I propose a heterogeneous agent model with asymmetric information and matching frictions that produces a tradeoff between finance and entrepreneurship. By becoming bankers, talented individuals...

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Macrohistory Seminar – Luigi Pascali (University of Warwick)

The Wind of Change: Maritime Technology, Trade and Economic Development The 1870-1913 period marked the birth of the first era of trade globalization. How did this tremendous increase in trade affect economic development? This work isolates a causality channel by exploiting the fact that the steamship produced an asymmetric change...

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Macrohistory Seminar: Bernhard Winkler (ECB)

A flow-of-funds perspective on the financial crisis – the role of sectoral leverage and balance sheets with Celestino Giron. We provide a narrative of the financial crisis following a flow-of-funds perspective focusing on the rotation of savings-investment imbalances and leverage across economic sectors. The role of excessive leverage (in terms...

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