The Washington Post, 23 July 2018, byMatt O’Brien.
One thing we can say for sure is there was a 2016 vote that significantly altered its country’s economic fortunes.
No, I’m not talking about President Trump’s shock election, but rather Britain’s equally surprising decision to leave the European Union. Although, as we’ll get to in a minute, it didn’t change things in a good way. That, at least, is what economists Benjamin Born, Gernot Müller, Moritz Schularick, and Petr Sedlácek found when they looked at how those two economies have done the past two years compared with what could have reasonably been expected of them.
It turns out, then, that populism really doesn’t pay.
Now, to paraphrase economist Robert Solow, we can see a Trump effect everywhere but in the macroeconomic statistics. Indeed, Born’s research team couldn’t find any difference between the U.S. economy’s performance before and after Trump’s election when they compared it with a statistical model that used data from 30 other rich countries to try to estimate what ours “should” be. Which is to say that our economy has grown almost exactly as much as you would have predicted it would have back on Nov. 7, 2016, a day before Trump’s unexpected victory. “[…]”
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